Short-term Forecast for December 3, 2018

| December 3, 2018

Stock Market Commentary

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle from October.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish trend and favor additional weakness heading into the next short-term low in two to three weeks.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new short-term high above previous lows of the violent downtrend from early October. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the rebound from late November.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 29. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 10 to December 31, with our best estimate being in the December 18 to December 24 range.

  • Last STCL: October 29, 2018
  • Cycle Duration: 24 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: December 10 to December 31; best estimate in the December 18 to December 24 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above congestion resistance in the 2,800 area would predict a move up to the top of the Bollinger bands at 2,828.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,726 would forecast a return to the previous short-term low at 2,632.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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