Short-term Forecast for January 29, 2019

| January 29, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 6 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the current short-term cycle.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish trend and favor additional weakness heading into the next short-term low in late February.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from December near congestion resistance in the 2,650 area. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 24. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from February 3 to February 27, with our best estimate being in the February 20 to February 26 range.

  • Last STCL: December 24, 2018
  • Cycle Duration: 23 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: February 3 to February 27; best estimate in the February 20 to February 26 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 2,671 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below congestion support at the 2,500 level would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 2,351.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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