Short-term Forecast for March 11, 2019

| March 11, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in December. A cycle low signal was nearly generated today, suggesting that the latest short-term low may have formed on March 8. A close above 2,795 during the next session would generate a cycle low signal and indicate that a new short-term cycle has likely begun.

Cycle direction is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,351 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the alpha high (AH) in November at 2,814 would signal the likely transition to a bullish trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 24. A cycle low signal was nearly generated today, suggesting that the latest STCL may have formed on March 8. A close above 2,795 during the next session would generate a cycle low signal and indicate that a new cycle has likely begun. Cycle translation is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,351 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the alpha high (AH) in November at 2,814 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through March 14.

  • Last STCL: December 24, 2018
  • Cycle Duration: 51 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through March 14.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above congestion resistance in the 2,800 area would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 2,726 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 2,680.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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