Short-term Forecast for March 13, 2019

| March 13, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that a new short-term cycle began at the end of last week. We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the new short-term cycle.

The small magnitude and brief duration of the last beta phase decline signal the likely transition to a bullish trend and favors additional short-term strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, returning to previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) likely formed on March 8. We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the STCL on March 8. The small magnitude and brief duration of the last beta phase decline signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 17 to May 8, with our best estimate being in the April 30 to May 6 range.

  • Last STCL: March 8, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 4 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: April 17 to May 8; best estimate in the April 30 to May 6 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle low setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle low trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle low signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above congestion resistance in the 2,800 area would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 2,743 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 2,693.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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