Short-term Forecast for August 9, 2019

| August 9, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 4 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in July.

The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish trend and favors additional short-term weakness during the next decline phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from recent short-term highs above previous lows of the violent downtrend from July. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on July 19. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from August 29 to September 19, with our best estimate being in the August 30 to September 6 range.

  • Last STCL: July 19, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 15 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: August 29 to September 19; best estimate in the August 30 to September 6 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the 50-day moving average at 2,936 would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,969.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2,845 would predict a move down to the 200-day moving average at 2,793.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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