Short-term Forecast for August 28, 2019

| August 28, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in July.

The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish trend and favors additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, reacting off of previous lows of the violent downtrend from July. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on July 19. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through September 19, with our best estimate being in the August 30 to September 6 range.

  • Last STCL: July 19, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 28 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through September 19; best estimate in the August 30 to September 6 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the 50-day moving average at 2,946 would predict a move up toward the previous long-term high at 3,026.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2,841 would predict a move down to the 200-day moving average at 2,804.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


Comments are closed.