Short-term Forecast for September 4, 2019

| September 4, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early August.

Market behavior has been chaotic and disorderly during the past several weeks, making it difficult to model, but future market behavior will ultimately provide renewed clarity, as it always does. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish trend and favors additional short-term weakness during the next decline phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, returning to recent short-term highs above previous lows of the violent downtrend from July. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 5. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 16 to October 4, with our best estimate being in the September 20 to September 26 range.

  • Last STCL: August 5, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 21 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: September 16 to October 4; best estimate in the September 20 to September 26 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the 50-day moving average at 2,944 would predict a move up toward the previous long-term high at 3,026.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2,841 would predict a move down to the 200-day moving average at 2,808.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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