Short-term Forecast for September 13, 2019

| September 13, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 14 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early August. The beta high (BH) of the current cycle is imminent and it could form at any time.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish trend and favors additional short-term weakness during the next decline phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a return to previous highs of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 14 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 5. The beta high (BH) is imminent and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 16 to October 4, with our best estimate being in the September 23 to September 27 range.

  • Last STCL: August 5, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 28 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: September 16 to October 4; best estimate in the September 23 to September 27 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 3,012 would forecast a move up to the previous long-term high at 3,026.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,933 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2,841.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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