Short-term Forecast for September 16, 2019

| September 16, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 15 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early August. The beta high (BH) of the current cycle is imminent and it could form at any time, if it has not already occurred on September 13.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish trend and favors additional short-term weakness during the next decline phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a return to previous highs of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 15 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 5. The beta high (BH) is imminent and it could form at any time, if it has not already occurred on September 13. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through October 4, with our best estimate being in the September 23 to September 27 range.

  • Last STCL: August 5, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 29 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through October 4; best estimate in the September 23 to September 27 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 3,012 would forecast a move up to the previous long-term high at 3,026.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,939 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2,841.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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