Short-term Forecast for November 19, 2019

| November 19, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 20 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early October. The beta high (BH) of the current cycle is overdue and it could form at any time.

The magnitude and duration of the current beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the next rally phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 20 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 2. The beta high (BH) is overdue and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 4, with our best estimate being in the November 25 to December 2 range.

  • Last STCL: October 2, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 33 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 4; best estimate in the November 25 to December 2 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below uptrend support at 3,115 would predict a return to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,070.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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