Short-term Forecast for November 20, 2019

| November 20, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 21 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early October. The beta high (BH) of the current cycle is overdue and it could form at any time.

The magnitude and duration of the current beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the next rally phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 21 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 2. The beta high (BH) is overdue and it could form at any time, if it has not already occurred on November 19. The magnitude and duration of the beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 4, with our best estimate being in the November 25 to December 2 range.

  • Last STCL: October 2, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 34 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 4; best estimate in the November 25 to December 2 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent high at 3,127 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below uptrend support at 3,120 would predict a return to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,075.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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