Short-term Forecast for November 21, 201

| November 21, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in early October.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the next rally phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from recent highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 2. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 4, with our best estimate being in the November 25 to December 2 range.

  • Last STCL: October 2, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 35 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 4; best estimate in the November 25 to December 2 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent high at 3,127 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a return to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,080.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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