Intermediate-term Forecast for November 23, 2019

| November 22, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 7 weeks into the second rally phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in August.

The move up to new highs reconfirms the current bullish trend and favors additional intermediate-term strength.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower this week, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 weeks into the second rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending August 23. The move up to new highs reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional intermediate-term strength. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is from December 27 to February 21, with our best estimate being in the January 17 to February 14 range.

  • Last ITCL: August 23, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 13 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: December 27 to February 21; best estimate in the January 17 to February 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and weekly close well below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from December near 2,980 would predict a move down to the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 2,850.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


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