Short-term Forecast for November 25, 2019

| November 25, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in early October. The latest short-term cycle low (STCL) may have formed on November 21, although we would need to see additional strength to confirm that development.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the next rally phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, returning to previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 2. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 4, with our best estimate being now through December 2. The latest STCL may have formed on November 21, although we would need to see additional strength to confirm that development.

  • Last STCL: October 2, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 37 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 4; best estimate now through December 2.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,089 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,020.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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