Short-term Forecast for December 2, 2019

| December 2, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

The decline today indicates that the beta phase decline of the current short-term cycle has begun. We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in early October.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the next rally phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating further from recent highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

The decline today indicates that the beta phase decline of the current short-term cycle has begun. We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 2. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 9.

  • Last STCL: October 2, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 41 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 9.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 3,154 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,107 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,031.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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