Short-term Forecast for December 6, 2019

| December 6, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that a new short-term cycle has begun. We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the current rally phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, approaching previous highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) likely formed on December 3. We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the STCL on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from January 14 to February 1, with our best estimate being in the January 24 to January 30 range.

  • Last STCL: December 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 4 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: January 14 to February 1; best estimate in the January 24 to January 30 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle low setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle low trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle low signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the recent high at 3,154 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 3,087 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,042.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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