Short-term Forecast for January 9, 2020

| January 9, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

The advance during the last 4 sessions has caused a change to our preferred scenario, and it is now likely that the beta phase rally of the current cycle is in progress. We are 4 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.

The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

The advance during the last 4 sessions has caused a change to our preferred scenario, and it is now likely that the beta phase rally of the current cycle is in progress. We are 4 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from January 14 to February 1, with our best estimate being in the January 24 to January 30 range.

  • Last STCL: December 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 25 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: January 14 to February 1; best estimate in the January 24 to January 30 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below uptrend support near 3,225 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,149.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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