Short-term Forecast for January 21, 2020

| January 21, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 11 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.

The magnitude and duration of the current beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 11 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through February 1, with our best estimate being in the January 27 to January 31 range.

  • Last STCL: December 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 32 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through February 1; best estimate in the January 27 to January 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent high at 3,330 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below uptrend support near 3,260 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,182.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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