Intermediate-term Forecast for January 25, 2020

| January 25, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 16 weeks into the rally phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in October.

The magnitude and duration of the current rally phase reconfirm the current bullish trend and favor additional intermediate-term strength.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower this week, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 16 weeks into the rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending October 11. The magnitude and duration of the current rally phase reconfirm the current bullish trend and favor additional intermediate-term strength. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is from January 31 to March 27, with our best estimate being in the February 21 to March 27 range.

  • Last ITCL: October 11, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 16 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: January 31 to March 27; best estimate in the February 21 to March 27 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close above the recent high at 3,330 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and weekly close well below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from 2018 near 3,275 would predict a move down toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,116.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


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