Short-term Forecast for January 31, 2020

| January 31, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the decline from last week.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through February 5.

  • Last STCL: December 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 40 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through February 5.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 3,333 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the 50-day moving average at 3,211 would reconfirm the downtrend from last week and predict a move down to congestion support in the 3,150 area.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


Comments are closed.