Short-term Forecast for February 3, 2020

| February 3, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, reacting off of recent short-term lows below previous highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through February 5. The low may have formed on January 31, although we would need to see additional strength to confirm that development.

  • Last STCL: December 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 41 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through February 5.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 3,333 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the 50-day moving average at 3,214 would reconfirm the downtrend from last week and predict a move down to congestion support in the 3,150 area.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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