Short-term Forecast for February 14, 2020

| February 14, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 10 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 10 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 13 to April 2, with our best estimate being in the March 25 to March 31 range.

  • Last STCL: January 31, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: March 13 to April 2; best estimate in the March 25 to March 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from October and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the 50-day moving average at 3,255 would predict a move down to congestion support in the 3,150 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


Comments are closed.