Intermediate-term Forecast for February 15, 2020

| February 15, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 4 weeks into the decline phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in October. The latest intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) may have formed during the week ending January 31, although we would need to see additional strength next week to confirm that development.

The magnitude and duration of the last rally phase reconfirm the current bullish trend and favor additional intermediate-term strength.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher this week, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are extremely bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 weeks into the decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending October 11. The magnitude and duration of the last rally phase reconfirm the current bullish trend and favor additional intermediate-term strength. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through March 27, with our best estimate being in the February 21 to March 27 range. The latest ITCL may have formed during the week ending January 31, although we would need to see additional strength next week to confirm that development.

  • Last ITCL: October 11, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 19 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: Now through March 27; best estimate in the February 21 to March 27 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and weekly close below the recent short-term low at 3,226 would predict a move down to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,165.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


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