Intermediate-term Forecast for February 29, 2020

| February 29, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 6 weeks into the decline phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in October. The latest intermediate-term low will likely form sometime during the next 3 weeks.

A quick rebound followed by a move up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish trend and favor additional intermediate-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that moves well below the last intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) at 2,945 would signal the likely transition to a bearish trend.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower this week, retreating further from recent highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 weeks into the decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending October 11. A quick rebound followed by a move up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional intermediate-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that moves well below the last ITCL at 2,945 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through March 27.

  • Last ITCL: October 11, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 21 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: Now through March 27.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the previous high at 3,380 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A weekly close below congestion support in the 2,950 area would reconfirm the downtrend from last week and predict additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


Comments are closed.