Short-term Forecast for March 2, 2020

| March 2, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

The strong advance today indicates that the beta low (BL) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on February 28. We are 2 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.

The magnitude of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend and favors additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, reacting off of recent lows of the downtrend from last week. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from late February.

Cycle Analysis

The strong advance today indicates that the beta low (BL) of the current cycle likely formed on February 28. We are 2 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 13 to April 2, with our best estimate being in the March 25 to March 31 range.

  • Last STCL: January 31, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 20 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: March 13 to April 2; best estimate in the March 25 to March 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,268.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2,917 would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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