Short-term Forecast for March 6, 2020

| March 6, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.

The magnitude of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend and favors additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, approaching previous lows of the downtrend from February. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude of the last alpha phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 13 to April 2, with our best estimate being in the March 23 to March 27 range.

  • Last STCL: January 31, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 24 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: March 13 to April 2; best estimate in the March 23 to March 27 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 3,130 would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,213.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the previous short-term low at 2,917 would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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