Short-term Forecast for March 9, 2020

| March 9, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

The sharp decline today indicates that the beta phase decline of the current short-term cycle is likely in progress. We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.

The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the current bearish short-term trend and favors additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

The sharp decline today indicates that the beta phase decline of the current cycle is likely in progress. We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 2, with our best estimate being now through March 13.

  • Last STCL: January 31, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 25 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through April 2; best estimate now through March 13.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above congestion resistance in the 3,000 area would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,184.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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