Short-term Forecast for March 13, 2020

| March 13, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on February 3. The latest short-term cycle low (STCL) may have formed on March 12, although we would need to see additional strength to confirm that development.

The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the current bearish short-term trend and favors additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, reacting off of recent lows of the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 2, with our best estimate being now through March 16. The latest STCL may have formed on March 12, although we would need to see additional strength to confirm that development.

  • Last STCL: January 31, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 29 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through April 2; best estimate now through March 16.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 2,750 area would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,052.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2,480 would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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