Short-term Forecast for April 20, 2020

| April 20, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 19 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on March 24. The alpha high (AH) of the current cycle is overdue and it could form at any time.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish short-term trend and favor additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 19 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. The alpha high (AH) is overdue and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 4 to May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 14 to May 20 range.

  • Last STCL: March 23, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 19 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: May 4 to May 22; best estimate in the May 14 to May 20 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 2,875 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast a move up to congestion resistance in the 3,000 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2,458 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2,237.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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