Short-term Forecast for April 21, 2020

| April 21, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on April 17. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on March 24.

An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, a brief, shallow decline followed by a quick move above the developing AH at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current cycle likely formed on April 17. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, a brief, shallow decline followed by a quick move above the developing AH at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 4 to May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 14 to May 20 range.

  • Last STCL: March 23, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 20 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: May 4 to May 22; best estimate in the May 14 to May 20 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 2,875 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast a move up to congestion resistance in the 3,000 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2,458 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2,237.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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