Intermediate-term Forecast for June 20, 2020

| June 20, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 13 weeks into the rally phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in March.

The magnitude of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish intermediate-term trend and favors additional losses during the next decline phase.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher this week, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

We are 13 weeks into the rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending March 27. The magnitude of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional weakness. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is from July 10 to September 11, with our best estimate being in the August 7 to September 4 range.

  • Last ITCL: March 27, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 13 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next ITCL Window: July 10 to September 11; best estimate in the August 7 to September 4 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the recent short-term high at 3,200 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A weekly close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,924 would predict a return to the 200-week moving average at 2,690.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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