Short-term Forecast for June 22, 2020

| June 22, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on May 14.

An extended beta phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by a move well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,994 would signal the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 14. An extended beta phase rally that moves above the last alpha high (AH) at 3,232 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by a move well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,994 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from June 24 to July 15, with our best estimate being in the July 7 to July 13 range.

  • Last STCL: May 14, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 27 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: June 24 to July 15; best estimate in the July 7 to July 13 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the previous short-term high at 3,232 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the 200-day moving average at 3,019 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 2,958.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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