Short-term Forecast for June 24, 2020

| June 24, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the beta high (BH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on June 23. We are 1 session into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on May 14.

A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,994 would signal the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the beta high (BH) of the current cycle likely formed on June 23. We are 1 session into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 14. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,994 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through July 15, with our best estimate being in the July 6 to July 10 range.

  • Last STCL: May 14, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 29 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through July 15; best estimate in the July 6 to July 10 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 3,232 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the 50-day moving average at 2,970 would confirm the start of a new downtrend and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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