Short-term Forecast for June 25, 2020

| June 25, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on May 14.

A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,994 would signal the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 14. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,994 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through July 15, with our best estimate being in the July 6 to July 10 range.

  • Last STCL: May 14, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 30 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through July 15; best estimate in the July 6 to July 10 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 3,232 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the 50-day moving average at 2,976 would confirm the start of a new downtrend and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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