Short-term Forecast for September 4, 2020

| September 4, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on August 20.

The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from recent highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 20. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the bullish translation and forecast additional gains. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 30 to October 20, with our best estimate being in the October 12 to October 16 range.

  • Last STCL: August 20, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 30 to October 20; best estimate in the October 12 to October 16 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 3,581 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,429 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 3,299.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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