Intermediate-term Forecast for September 19, 2020

| September 18, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 3 weeks into the decline phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in March.

The magnitude of the previous decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish intermediate-term trend and favors additional losses.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower this week, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 weeks into the decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending March 27. The magnitude of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional weakness. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through October 9.

  • Last ITCL: March 27, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 26 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next ITCL Window: Now through October 9.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the recent long-term high at 3,510 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A weekly close below current levels would predict a return to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,169.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


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