Short-term Forecast for October 13, 2020

| October 13, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 14 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on September 24. The alpha high (AH) of the current cycle will likely form sometime during the next 2 sessions, if it has not already occurred on October 12.

The magnitude and duration of the current alpha phase rally suggests that short-term direction is in question.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 14 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on September 24. The alpha high (AH) will likely form sometime during the next 2 sessions, if it has not already occurred on October 12. The magnitude and duration of the current alpha phase rally suggests that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 3 to November 23, with our best estimate being in the November 13 to November 19 range.

  • Last STCL: September 24, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: November 3 to November 23; best estimate in the November 13 to November 19 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 3,534 would predict a return to the previous short-term high at 3,581.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,369 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 3,226.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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