Short-term Forecast for November 17, 2020

| November 17, 2020

Stock Market Commentary

We are 12 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on November 1. The alpha high (AH) of the current cycle will likely form sometime during the next 3 sessions.

A quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the short-term low in September at 3,226 would reconfirm that current bearish short-term trend and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to meaningful new highs would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 1. The alpha high (AH) will likely form sometime during the next 3 sessions. A quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the STCL in September at 3,226 would reconfirm that current bearish translation and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to meaningful new highs would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 11 to December 31, with our best estimate being in the December 23 to December 30 range.

  • Last STCL: November 1, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: December 11 to December 31; best estimate in the December 23 to December 30 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the recent short-term high at 3,627 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,458 would predict a return to congestion support in the 3,200 area.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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