Short-term Forecast for January 5, 2021
Stock Market Commentary
We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on December 14.
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The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.
The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.
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We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 14. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from January 25 to February 12, with our best estimate being in the February 3 to February 9 range.
- Last STCL: December 14, 2020
- Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: January 25 to February 12; best estimate in the February 3 to February 9 range.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 3,765 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,701 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 3,596.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts