Intermediate-Term Forecast for March 20, 2021

| March 20, 2021

Stock Market Commentary

We are 25 weeks into the rally phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began during the week ending September 25.

The magnitude and duration of the current rally phase reconfirm the current bullish intermediate-term trend and forecast additional gains.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower this week, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 25 weeks into the rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending September 25. The magnitude and duration of the current rally phase reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through March 26.

  • Last ITCL: September 25, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 25 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: Now through March 26.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close well above the previous high at 3,940 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and weekly close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,760 would predict a return to the 50-week moving average at 3,415.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


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