Short-term Forecast for March 31, 2021

| March 31, 2021

Stock Market Commentary

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on March 4.

An extended beta phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that returns to the short-term low in January at 3,694 on the S&P 500 index would suggest that trend direction is in question.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding at previous highs of the uptrend from 2020. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase rally of the of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 4. An extended beta phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that returns to the STCL in January at 3,694 would suggest that trend direction is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 15 to May 5, with our best estimate being in the April 21 to April 27 range.

  • Last STCL: March 4, 2021
  • Cycle Duration: 19 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: April 15 to May 5; best estimate in the April 21 to April 27 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the 50-day moving average at 3,885 would predict a return to congestion support in the 3,700 area.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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