Intermediate-Term Forecast for April 17, 2021

| April 17, 2021

Stock Market Commentary

We are 7 weeks into the rally phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began during the week ending March 5.

The magnitude and duration of the previous rally phase reconfirm the current bullish intermediate-term trend and forecast additional gains.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher this week, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are extremely bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 weeks into the rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending March 5. The magnitude and duration of the previous rally phase reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is from June 25 to August 27, with out best estimate being in the July 23 to August 20 range.

  • Last ITCL: March 5, 2021
  • Cycle Duration: 7 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: June 25 to August 27; best estimate in the July 23 to August 20 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from October and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and weekly close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,861 would predict a return to the 50-week moving average at 3,515.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


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