Short-Term Forecast for April 20, 2021

| April 20, 2021

Stock Market Commentary

A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the beta high (BH) of the current cycle likely formed on April 16. We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on March 4.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from recent highs of the uptrend from 2020. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the beta high (BH) likely formed on April 16. We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 4. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through May 5, with our best estimate being in the April 23 to April 29 range.

  • Last STCL: March 4, 2021
  • Cycle Duration: 32 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through May 5; best estimate in the April 23 to April 29 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 4,185 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the 50-day moving average at 3,961 would predict a return to congestion support in the 3,700 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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