Short-Term Forecast for April 26, 2021

| April 26, 2021

Stock Market Commentary

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on March 4.

The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding at recent highs of the uptrend from 2020. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase decline of the of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 4. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through May 5, with our best estimate being now through April 29.

  • Last STCL: March 4, 2021
  • Cycle Duration: 36 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through May 5; best estimate now through to April 29.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the 50-day moving average at 3,982 would predict a return to congestion support in the 3,700 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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