Short-Term Forecast for April 30, 2021

| April 30, 2021

Stock Market Commentary

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on March 25. The beta high (BH) of the current cycle may have formed on April 29, although we would need to see additional weakness during the next session to confirm that development.

The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from 2020. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase rally of the of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 25. The beta high (BH) may have formed on April 29, although we would need to see additional weakness during the next session to confirm that development. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 5 to May 25, with our best estimate being in the May 12 to May 18 range.

  • Last STCL: March 25, 2021
  • Cycle Duration: 26 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: May 5 to May 25; best estimate in the May 12 to May 18 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent high at 4,211 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the 50-day moving average at 4,003 would predict a return to congestion support in the 3,700 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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