Short-term Forecast for May 10, 2021

| May 10, 2021

Stock Market Commentary

We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on May 5.

An extended alpha phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last short-term low at 4,164 on the S&P 500 index would suggest that trend direction is in question.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from 2020. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 5. An extended alpha phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 4,164 would suggest that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from June 16 to July 7, with our best estimate being in the June 28 to July 2 range.

  • Last STCL: May 5, 2021
  • Cycle Duration: 3 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: June 16 to July 7; best estimate in the June 28 to July 2 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 4,233 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 4,175 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 4,042.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


Comments are closed.