RSSCategory: Commentary

Gold Approaches Short-term Breakout Target

| September 7, 2017

In late August, gold broke out of the short-term trading range formation that had been developing since March. As expected, the subsequent advance was strong and prices are approaching our initial target of 1,365. Given the bullish character of short-term technical analysis and cycle analysis, it is highly likely that the rally will continue. However, it […]

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Stock Market Bubble Now Largest of Past 100 Years

| September 6, 2017

Context plays a vital role in the development of reliable market forecasts. Short-term price behavior only has meaning when analyzed in the proper context afforded by the long-term view, so all investing and trading strategies should begin with a thorough understanding of the big picture. The cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early […]

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Stock Market Attempts to Form Intermediate-term Low

| September 2, 2017

In late August, our computer models identified the potential formation of a short-term low in the stock market. After consolidating for several sessions, the S&P 500 index advanced sharply this week, confirming that a new short-term cycle is in progress. Additionally, the latest short-term low formed very close to the window during which our computer […]

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Gold Attempts to Break Out of Trading Range

| August 21, 2017

Gold has been confined to a trading range since March, with support at the 1,220 level and resistance in the 1,295 area. For the past week, prices have been attempting to move above the 1,295 resistance level. This is the third breakout attempt, and the character of price behavior during the last 8 sessions suggests […]

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Stock Market Rally Begins Correction

| August 12, 2017

In late April, our computer models predicted the formation of an intermediate-term low in the stock market. Further, given the bullish character of the previous advance, our models indicated that the rally would likely continue and move up to new long-term highs. The bull market resumed as expected and the S&P 500 index rallied until […]

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US Dollar on Verge of Meaningful Breakdown

| August 12, 2017

From an intermediate-term perspective, the US Dollar index has been moving sideways since early 2015, forming a consolidation pattern following the strong rally in 2014. The congestion support in the 93 area has been tested several times since then, but the current downtrend from the beginning of the year is attempting to move below that […]

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Stock Market on Verge of Intermediate-term Signal

| April 25, 2017

Last week, our computer models predicted the formation of a short-term low in the stock market. The S&P 500 index has advanced sharply this week, confirming that a new short-term cycle has begun. Additionally, the latest short-term low has occurred within the window during which our computer models have predicted that the latest intermediate-term low […]

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Stock Market Rally Faces Important Short-term Test

| April 13, 2017

In early March, our computer models predicted the early formation of the first high of the current short-term cycle. Since then, The S&P 500 index has trended lower, indicating that short-term direction is in question. As shown on the following daily chart, our cycle analysis computer models indicate that the latest short-term low will likely […]

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Yield Rally on Verge of Breakdown

| April 8, 2017

In March, our computer models predicted the formation of an intermediate-term high in the 10-year Treasury Note yield. Since then, the 10-year yield has moved lower and this week the decline began a test of the last intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) in February at 2.31%. The strong rally from 2016 has now formed two intermediate-term […]

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Stocks Approach Intermediate-term High as Market Internals Signal Caution

| February 11, 2017

As we observed recently, the current stock market bubble is one of the largest of the past 100 years. Further, at a current duration of nearly eight years, the cyclical uptrend from 2009 is long overdue for termination. Although the S&P 500 index has moved up to new all-time highs, the advance from 2016 is […]

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