Secular Trend Score

retrieve_data( $TableFields[DATA_SECULAR_SCORE] );
$objDate->set_from_database_string( $objRecord->retrieve_data( $TableFields[DATA_SECULAR_SCORE_DATE_LAST] ) );

# Look for signals:
if( $nPMISecularScore >= 80.0 )
{ $strSecularScoreHTML = “” . $nPMISecularScore . ” (Buy Signal)“; }
else if( $nPMISecularScore <= -80.0 ) { $strSecularScoreHTML = "” . $nPMISecularScore . ” (Sell Signal)“; }
{ $strSecularScoreHTML = $nPMISecularScore; }

Our Secular Trend Score (STS) is a measure of stock market secular trend health. The STS is generated by a rule-based software program of our own design that analyzes a large basket of fundamental, technical, internal and sentiment data in order to provide a quantitative measure of overall bullishness or bearishness from a long-term investment perspective. Generated scores range from 100 to -100, so a reading near 100 would indicate that we are in the early stage of a secular bull market in stocks, while a reading near -100 would suggest the beginning of a primary bear trend. Long-term buy signals occur when the score moves above 80 during the final stage of a secular bear market, and long-term sell signals occur when the score drops below -80 during the final stage of a secular bull market. The most recent STS value is shown below.

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The program that generates this score has been back-tested using historical market data and the following chart displays the STS versus the S&P 500 index since 1945.

The software has successfully identified every secular trend change during the last 80 years. That isn’t to say that the system is performing some type of ingenious or mystical analysis. Quite the contrary, we believe that anyone can implement such tools given the necessary time and inclination; the data are there, it’s simply a matter of sitting down and developing the required depth of understanding. Further, as with all such automation, we view the STS as an analysis aid, not a crystal ball. It helps us to stay focused on the big picture and provides us with objective, unemotional analysis of the data that shape the all-powerful secular trend.