Cyclical Trend Score

set_from_database_string( $objRecord->retrieve_data( $TableFields[DATA_CYCLICAL_SCORE_DATE_LAST] ) );

# Current score:
$nCyclicalTrendScore = $objRecord->retrieve_data( $TableFields[DATA_CYCLICAL_SCORE] );

# Look for signals:
if( $nCyclicalTrendScore >= 65.0 )
{ $strCyclicalScoreHTML = “” . $nCyclicalTrendScore . ” (Potential Buy Signal)“; }
else if( $nCyclicalTrendScore <= -65.0 ) { $strCyclicalScoreHTML = "” . $nCyclicalTrendScore . ” (Potential Sell Signal)“; }
{ $strCyclicalScoreHTML = $nCyclicalTrendScore; }

The PMI Cyclical Trend Score (CTS) identifies highly probable inflection points in the stock market cyclical trend. The CTS is generated by a rule-based software program of our own design that analyzes a large basket of fundamental, technical, internal and sentiment data in order to provide a quantitative measure of overall cyclical bullishness or bearish, in much the same manner that our Secular Trend Score (STS) is calculated. While the STS identifies turning points in the 10 to 20-year secular trends, the CTS looks for turning points in the component cyclical trends that typically last from 2 to 5 years.

As with the STS, CTS values range from -100 (most bearish) to 100 (most bullish). Potential buy signals are generated when the score moves above 65 and potential sell signals are generated when it falls below -65. The latest CTS value is shown below.

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During the past 70 years, the CTS has correctly identified 92% of the cyclical turning points in the stock market while issuing only four false signals. The CTS values during the past 10 years are displayed on the graph below.

As impressive as the CTS track record has been to this point, we realize that there are no sure things when it comes to the financial markets. As always, there are only possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. However, the CTS trading system should continue to reliably identify highly probable cyclical inflection points, enabling us to profitably ride the cyclical trend both up and down for several years at a time.